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Abstract Atmospheric aerosols influence the Earth’s climate, primarily by affecting cloud formation and scattering visible radiation. However, aerosol-related physical processes in climate simulations are highly uncertain. Constraining these processes could help improve model-based climate predictions. We propose a scalable statistical framework for constraining the parameters of expensive climate models by comparing model outputs with observations. Using the C3.AI Suite, a cloud computing platform, we use a perturbed parameter ensemble of the UKESM1 climate model to efficiently train a surrogate model. A method for estimating a data-driven model discrepancy term is described. The strict bounds method is applied to quantify parametric uncertainty in a principled way. We demonstrate the scalability of this framework with 2 weeks’ worth of simulated aerosol optical depth data over the South Atlantic and Central African region, written from the model every 3 hr and matched in time to twice-daily MODIS satellite observations. When constraining the model using real satellite observations, we establish constraints on combinations of two model parameters using much higher time-resolution outputs from the climate model than previous studies. This result suggests that within the limits imposed by an imperfect climate model, potentially very powerful constraints may be achieved when our framework is scaled to the analysis of more observations and for longer time periods. 

Biogenic vapors form new particles in the atmosphere, affecting global climate. The contributions of monoterpenes and isoprene to new particle formation (NPF) have been extensively studied. However, sesquiterpenes have received little attention despite a potentially important role due to their high molecular weight. Via chamber experiments performed under atmospheric conditions, we report biogenic NPF resulting from the oxidation of pure mixtures of β-caryophyllene, α-pinene, and isoprene, which produces oxygenated compounds over a wide range of volatilities. We find that a class of vapors termed ultralow-volatility organic compounds (ULVOCs) are highly efficient nucleators and quantitatively determine NPF efficiency. When compared with a mixture of isoprene and monoterpene alone, adding only 2% sesquiterpene increases the ULVOC yield and doubles the formation rate. Thus, sesquiterpene emissions need to be included in assessments of global aerosol concentrations in pristine climates where biogenic NPF is expected to be a major source of cloud condensation nuclei.

 

The change in planetary albedo due to aerosol−cloud interactions during the industrial era is the leading source of uncertainty in inferring Earth’s climate sensitivity to increased greenhouse gases from the historical record. The variable that controls aerosol−cloud interactions in warm clouds is droplet number concentration. Global climate models demonstrate that the present-day hemispheric contrast in cloud droplet number concentration between the pristine Southern Hemisphere and the polluted Northern Hemisphere oceans can be used as a proxy for anthropogenically driven change in cloud droplet number concentration. Remotely sensed estimates constrain this change in droplet number concentration to be between 8 cm −3 and 24 cm −3 . By extension, the radiative forcing since 1850 from aerosol−cloud interactions is constrained to be −1.2 W⋅m −2 to −0.6 W⋅m −2 . The robustness of this constraint depends upon the assumption that pristine Southern Ocean droplet number concentration is a suitable proxy for preindustrial concentrations. Droplet number concentrations calculated from satellite data over the Southern Ocean are high in austral summer. Near Antarctica, they reach values typical of Northern Hemisphere polluted outflows. These concentrations are found to agree with several in situ datasets. In contrast, climate models show systematic underpredictions of cloud droplet number concentration across the Southern Ocean. Near Antarctica, where precipitation sinks of aerosol are small, the underestimation by climate models is particularly large. This motivates the need for detailed process studies of aerosol production and aerosol−cloud interactions in pristine environments. The hemispheric difference in satellite estimated cloud droplet number concentration implies preindustrial aerosol concentrations were higher than estimated by most models. 

Abstract New particle formation in the upper free troposphere is a major global source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) 1–4 . However, the precursor vapours that drive the process are not well understood. With experiments performed under upper tropospheric conditions in the CERN CLOUD chamber, we show that nitric acid, sulfuric acid and ammonia form particles synergistically, at rates that are orders of magnitude faster than those from any two of the three components. The importance of this mechanism depends on the availability of ammonia, which was previously thought to be efficiently scavenged by cloud droplets during convection. However, surprisingly high concentrations of ammonia and ammonium nitrate have recently been observed in the upper troposphere over the Asian monsoon region 5,6 . Once particles have formed, co-condensation of ammonia and abundant nitric acid alone is sufficient to drive rapid growth to CCN sizes with only trace sulfate. Moreover, our measurements show that these CCN are also highly efficient ice nucleating particles—comparable to desert dust. Our model simulations confirm that ammonia is efficiently convected aloft during the Asian monsoon, driving rapid, multi-acid HNO 3 –H 2 SO 4 –NH 3 nucleation in the upper troposphere and producing ice nucleating particles that spread across the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere. 

Abstract. New particle formation (NPF) is a significant source of atmosphericparticles, affecting climate and air quality. Understanding the mechanismsinvolved in urban aerosols is important to develop effective mitigationstrategies. However, NPF rates reported in the polluted boundary layer spanmore than 4 orders of magnitude, and the reasons behind this variability are the subject of intense scientific debate. Multiple atmospheric vapours have beenpostulated to participate in NPF, including sulfuric acid, ammonia, aminesand organics, but their relative roles remain unclear. We investigated NPFin the CLOUD chamber using mixtures of anthropogenic vapours that simulatepolluted boundary layer conditions. We demonstrate that NPF in pollutedenvironments is largely driven by the formation of sulfuric acid–baseclusters, stabilized by the presence of amines, high ammonia concentrationsand lower temperatures. Aromatic oxidation products, despite their extremelylow volatility, play a minor role in NPF in the chosen urban environment butcan be important for particle growth and hence for the survival of newlyformed particles. Our measurements quantitatively account for NPF in highlydiverse urban environments and explain its large observed variability. Suchquantitative information obtained under controlled laboratory conditionswill help the interpretation of future ambient observations of NPF rates inpolluted atmospheres. 

New particle formation (NPF) represents the first step in the complex processes leading to formation of cloud condensation nuclei. Newly formed nanoparticles affect human health, air quality, weather, and climate. This review provides a brief history, synthesizes recent significant progresses, and outlines the challenges and future directions for research relevant to NPF. New developments include the emergence of state‐of‐the‐art instruments that measure prenucleation clusters and newly nucleated nanoparticles down to about 1 nm; systematic laboratory studies of multicomponent nucleation systems, including collaborative experiments conducted in the Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets chamber at CERN; observations of NPF in different types of forests, extremely polluted urban locations, coastal sites, polar regions, and high‐elevation sites; and improved nucleation theories and parameterizations to account for NPF in atmospheric models. The challenges include the lack of understanding of the fundamental chemical mechanisms responsible for aerosol nucleation and growth under diverse environments, the effects of SO₂and NO_xon NPF, and the contribution of anthropogenic organic compounds to NPF. It is also critical to develop instruments that can detect chemical composition of particles from 3 to 20 nm and improve parameterizations to represent NPF over a wide range of atmospheric conditions of chemical precursor, temperature, and humidity.

 

Abstract. In the present-day atmosphere, sulfuric acid is the mostimportant vapour for aerosol particle formation and initial growth. However,the growth rates of nanoparticles (<10 nm) from sulfuric acidremain poorly measured. Therefore, the effect of stabilizing bases, thecontribution of ions and the impact of attractive forces on molecularcollisions are under debate. Here, we present precise growth ratemeasurements of uncharged sulfuric acid particles from 1.8 to 10 nm, performedunder atmospheric conditions in the CERN (EuropeanOrganization for Nuclear Research) CLOUD chamber. Our results showthat the evaporation of sulfuric acid particles above 2 nm is negligible,and growth proceeds kinetically even at low ammonia concentrations. Theexperimental growth rates exceed the hard-sphere kinetic limit for thecondensation of sulfuric acid. We demonstrate that this results fromvan der Waals forces between the vapour molecules and particles anddisentangle it from charge–dipole interactions. The magnitude of theenhancement depends on the assumed particle hydration and collisionkinetics but is increasingly important at smaller sizes, resulting in asteep rise in the observed growth rates with decreasing size. Including theexperimental results in a global model, we find that the enhanced growth rate ofsulfuric acid particles increases the predicted particle number concentrationsin the upper free troposphere by more than 50 %. 

Abstract. Nucleation of atmospheric vapours produces more than half of global cloudcondensation nuclei and so has an important influence on climate. Recentstudies show that monoterpene (C10H16) oxidation yieldshighly oxygenated products that can nucleate with or without sulfuric acid.Monoterpenes are emitted mainly by trees, frequently together with isoprene(C5H8), which has the highest global emission of all organicvapours. Previous studies have shown that isoprene suppresses new-particleformation from monoterpenes, but the cause of this suppression is underdebate. Here, in experiments performed under atmospheric conditions in theCERN CLOUD chamber, we show that isoprene reduces the yield ofhighly oxygenated dimers with 19 or 20 carbon atoms – which drive particlenucleation and early growth – while increasing the production of dimers with14 or 15 carbon atoms. The dimers (termed C20 and C15,respectively) are produced by termination reactions between pairs of peroxyradicals (RO2⚫) arising from monoterpenes or isoprene.Compared with pure monoterpene conditions, isoprene reduces nucleation ratesat 1.7 nm (depending on the isoprene ∕ monoterpene ratio) and approximatelyhalves particle growth rates between 1.3 and 3.2 nm. However, above 3.2 nm,C15 dimers contribute to secondary organic aerosol, and the growth ratesare unaffected by isoprene. We further show that increased hydroxyl radical(OH⚫) reduces particle formation in our chemical system ratherthan enhances it as previously proposed, since it increases isoprene-derivedRO2⚫ radicals that reduce C20 formation.RO2⚫ termination emerges as the critical step that determinesthe highly oxygenated organic molecule (HOM) distribution and the corresponding nucleation capability. Speciesthat reduce the C20 yield, such as NO, HO2 and as we showisoprene, can thus effectively reduce biogenic nucleation and early growth.Therefore the formation rate of organic aerosol in a particular region ofthe atmosphere under study will vary according to the precise ambientconditions.